Examining adaptations to water stress among farming households in Sri Lanka’s dry zone

Climate change is increasing water scarcity in Sri Lanka. Whether these changes will undermine national-level food security depends upon the ability of the small-scale farmers that dominate rice production and the institutions that support them to overcome the challenges presented by changing water availability. Analyzing household survey data, this research identifies household, institutional, and agroecological factors that influence how water-stressed farmers are working to adapt to changing conditions and how the strategies they employ impact rice yields. Paralleling studies conducted elsewhere, we identified institutional factors as particularly relevant in farmer adaptation decisions. Notably, our research identified farmers’ use of hybrid seed varietals as the only local climate adaptation strategy to positively correlate with farmers’ rice yields. These findings provide insight into additional factors pertinent to successful agricultural adaptation and offer encouraging evidence for policies that promote plant breeding and distribution in Sri Lanka as a means to buffer the food system to climate change-exacerbated drought.     

Toward accurate and precise estimates of lion density

Reliable estimates of animal density are fundamental to understanding ecological processes and population dynamics. Furthermore, their accuracy is vital to conservation because wildlife authorities rely on estimates to make decisions. However, it is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate density for wide‐ranging carnivores that occur at low densities. In recent years, significant progress has been made in density estimation of Asian carnivores, but the methods have not been widely adapted to African carnivores, such as lions (Panthera leo). Although abundance indices for lions may produce poor inferences, they continue to be used to estimate density and inform management and policy. We used sighting data from a 3‐month survey and adapted a Bayesian spatially explicit capture‐recapture (SECR) model to estimate spatial lion density in the Maasai Mara National Reserve and surrounding conservancies in Kenya. Our unstructured spatial capture‐recapture sampling design incorporated search effort to explicitly estimate detection probability and density on a fine spatial scale, making our approach robust in the context of varying detection probabilities. Overall posterior mean lion density was estimated to be 17.08 (posterior SD 1.310) lions >1 year old/100 km², and the sex ratio was estimated at 2.2 females to 1 male. Our modeling framework and narrow posterior SD demonstrate that SECR methods can produce statistically rigorous and precise estimates of population parameters, and we argue that they should be favored over less reliable abundance indices. Furthermore, our approach is flexible enough to incorporate different data types, which enables robust population estimates over relatively short survey periods in a variety of systems. Trend analyses are essential to guide conservation decisions but are frequently based on surveys of differing reliability. We therefore call for a unified framework to assess lion numbers in key populations to improve management and policy decisions.     

Estimating abundance without recaptures of marked pallid sturgeon in the Mississippi River

Abundance estimates are essential for assessing the viability of populations and the risks posed by alternative management actions. An effort to estimate abundance via a repeated mark‐recapture experiment may fail to recapture marked individuals. We devised a method for obtaining lower bounds on abundance in the absence of recaptures for both panmictic and spatially structured populations. The method assumes few enough recaptures were expected to be missed by random chance. The upper Bayesian credible limit on expected recaptures allows probabilistic statements about the minimum number of individuals present in the population. We applied this method to data from a 12‐year survey of pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) in the lower and middle Mississippi River (U.S.A.). None of the 241 individuals marked was recaptured in the survey. After accounting for survival and movement, our model‐averaged estimate of the total abundance of pallid sturgeon ≥3 years old in the study area had a 1%, 5%, or 25% chance of being <4,600, 7,000, or 15,000, respectively. When we assumed fish were distributed in proportion to survey catch per unit effort, the farthest downstream reach in the survey hosted at least 4.5–15 fish per river kilometer (rkm), whereas the remainder of the reaches in the lower and middle Mississippi River hosted at least 2.6–8.5 fish/rkm for all model variations examined. The lower Mississippi River had an average density of pallid sturgeon ≥3 years old of at least 3.0–9.8 fish/rkm. The choice of Bayesian prior was the largest source of uncertainty we considered but did not alter the order of magnitude of lower bounds. Nil‐recapture estimates of abundance are highly uncertain and require careful communication but can deliver insights from experiments that might otherwise be considered a failure.     

Silver prices and solar energy production

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The goal of this paper is to identify, for the first time, the role of solar production in driving silver prices. The empirical analysis makes use of...     

Implications of Spatial Data Variations for Protected Areas Management: An Example from East Africa

Geographic information systems and remote sensing technologies have become an important tool for visualizing conservation management and developing solutions to problems associated with conservation. When multiple organizations separately develop spatial data representations of protected areas, implicit error arises due to variation between data sets. We used boundary data produced by three conservation organizations (International Union for the Conservation of Nature, World Resource Institute, and Uganda Wildlife Authority), for seven Ugandan parks, to study variation in the size represented and the location of boundaries. We found variation in the extent of overlapping total area encompassed by the three data sources, ranging from miniscule (0.4 %) differences to quite large ones (9.0 %). To underscore how protected area boundary discrepancies may have implications to protected area management, we used a landcover classification, defining crop, shrub, forest, savanna, and grassland. The total area in the different landcover classes varied most in smaller protected areas (those less than 329 km²), with forest and cropland area estimates varying up to 65 %. The discrepancies introduced by boundary errors could, in this hypothetical case, generate erroneous findings and could have a significant impact on conservation, such as local-scale management for encroachment and larger-scale assessments of deforestation.     

An LC-MS/MS method for creatine and creatinine analysis in paraquat-intoxicated patients

Abstract

A sudden increase in serum creatinine after paraquat intoxication has been reported in several clinical studies. However, this dramatic change of creatinine may be possibly due to an interconversion of creatine-creatinine in relation to paraquat toxicity. In order to investigate the creatine-creatinine relationship, a liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry in combination with electrospray ionization was developed and validated for simultaneous determination of creatine and creatinine in the serum. The chromatographic separation was achieved on a Gemini® C₆-Phenyl column with a gradient elution consisting of 0.1% formic acid in ultrapure water and methanol as the mobile phase. The method yielded suitable levels of specificity and selectivity, and calibration curves of creatine and creatinine in serum were linear over the concentration range of 0.5–200?µg mL^?1. The limit of quantification of both compounds was 0.5?µg mL^?1, and the method was accurate within the recovery range of 96.23–102.75%, indicating the robustness of the method. The method was successfully applied to toxicological samples from paraquat-intoxicated patients, and the concentrations of creatine and creatinine were quantified. High creatine concentrations in serum samples were observed which may lead to high serum creatinine despite normal kidney function as creatine is converted to creatinine in proportion to its concentration.     

A framework for understanding climate change impacts on coral reef social–ecological systems

Corals and coral-associated species are highly vulnerable to the emerging effects of global climate change. The widespread degradation of coral reefs, which will be accelerated by climate change, jeopardizes the goods and services that tropical nations derive from reef ecosystems. However, climate change impacts to reef social–ecological systems can also be bi-directional. For example, some climate impacts, such as storms and sea level rise, can directly impact societies, with repercussions for how they interact with the environment. This study identifies the multiple impact pathways within coral reef social–ecological systems arising from four key climatic drivers: increased sea surface temperature, severe tropical storms, sea level rise and ocean acidification. We develop a novel framework for investigating climate change impacts in social–ecological systems, which helps to highlight the diverse impacts that must be considered in order to develop a more complete understanding of the impacts of climate change, as well as developing appropriate management actions to mitigate climate change impacts on coral reef and people.     

Exploring the risks and benefits of flexibility in biodiversity offset location in a case study of migratory shorebirds

Biodiversity offsets aim to counterbalance the residual impacts of development on species and ecosystems. Guidance documents explicitly recommend that biodiversity offset actions be located close to the location of impact because of higher potential for similar ecological conditions, but allowing greater spatial flexibility has been proposed. We examined the circumstances under which offsets distant from the impact location could be more likely to achieve no net loss or provide better ecological outcomes than offsets close to the impact area. We applied a graphical model for migratory shorebirds in the East Asian–Australasian Flyway as a case study to explore the problems that arise when incorporating spatial flexibility into offset planning. Spatially flexible offsets may alleviate impacts more effectively than local offsets; however, the risks involved can be substantial. For our case study, there were inadequate data to make robust conclusions about the effectiveness and equivalence of distant habitat-based offsets for migratory shorebirds. Decisions around offset placement should be driven by the potential to achieve equivalent ecological outcomes; however, when considering more distant offsets, there is a need to evaluate the likely increased risks alongside the potential benefits. Although spatially flexible offsets have the potential to provide more cost-effective biodiversity outcomes and more cobenefits, our case study showed the difficulty of demonstrating these benefits in practice and the potential risks that need to be considered to ensure effective offset placement.     

Climate Change and Population Growth in Timor Leste: Implications for Food Security

The climate in Timor Leste (East Timor) is predicted to become about 1.5 °C warmer and about 10 % wetter on average by 2050. By the same year, the population is expected to triple from 1 to 2.5–3 million. This article maps the predicted changes in temperature and rainfall and reviews the implications of climate change and population growth on agricultural systems. Improved cultivars of maize, rice, cassava, sweet potato and peanuts with high yield performance have been introduced, but these will need to be augmented in the future with better adapted cultivars and new crops, such as food and fodder legumes and new management practices. The requirements for fertilizers to boost yields and terracing and/or contour hedgerows to prevent soil erosion of steeply sloping terrain are discussed. Contour hedges can also be used for fodder for improved animal production to provide protein to reduce malnutrition.     

Effect of diel period and season on seining effort required to detect changes in Lake Erie beach fish assemblages

Using beach seining data from Lake Erie beaches, we examined the effect of diel period and season on two common study objectives considered sensitive to sampling effort: (1) has fish assemblage composition changed between two sampling time periods?, and (2) how many samples are necessary to provide a representative sample of the fish assemblage? Across a range of effect sizes and power levels, sample sizes were estimated for species richness, total fish abundance, round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) abundance and emerald shiner (Notropis atherinoides) abundance. For most sampling periods and effect sizes, several hundred to several thousand seine hauls were estimated to be required for detecting large-scale (e.g. basin-wide) changes in round goby and emerald shiner abundance. Depending on the indicator of interest, night seining (either spring or fall) was interpreted as the most efficient approach. For both seasons, sampling effort beyond 40 to 50 night seine hauls results in few additional species being detected. Both species accumulation curves and estimated sample sizes indicate that less effort is required to detect species richness changes than fish abundance. For most effect sizes and power levels, estimates of the number of seine hauls required to detect changes in fish abundance are unrealistically large for most monitoring programs. More practical monitoring strategies could be achieved by adopting alternative indicators (e.g. guilds), a more liberal significance level (p=0.1), a paired-site sampling design, or including reference sites.